Failure

Coinciding with Season 10 of the X-Files, Amazon put the whole blu ray series on sale for $130 (normally $260).  I couldn’t resist… So that’s $130 gone.  It’s a failure… not a huge one, and not as bad as if I had drank (haven’t drank anything this year!).  I could still cancel the order but… I like the X-Files.  If this costs me one more day… okay.  But… I have to keep it in perspective.  I can’t keep purchasing crap like this.

It feels a bit like I’ve been treading water since December.  No wonder, since my condo isn’t rising in value, and the stock market plunged by 10%.Screen Shot 2016-01-26 at 8.18.03 AM.png

Possibilities for this next year:  stock market plunges by another 50%, so I’d lose about $20k from that.  And if that happens, almost for sure my condo’s value will also drop, maybe another $60k there.  So I could see my net worth fall to $300k, even as I will earn and invest around $60k.  I could come out -$20k from where I am now by 2017.  In the falling market scenario, it would be wise for me to hold off on paying down the condo and instead try to wait for the bottom to invest.  Then, on the way up, I will earn back my losses and then some.  The way up could be a 5 year period though…

I crunched some tax numbers, and my refund is up to $3k.  Not bad!  But I can’t file for it until I have more paperwork so I can writeoff some losses from last year.  I wish I’d sold everything at the end of last year… then I’d have more money and a bigger writeoff.

In theory my net worth can rise 1.5% per month. So for thr year, it would take an 18% drop in the overall to cancel out my gains. That’s not impossible, but it definitely would represent an unusually bad year… though maybe not unusual for this new period of volatility we are entering.

I need to read more company-specific research… better understand how to value a stock.

I’m sick right now.  Combination of sore throat + snot.  Bleh.

 

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