The CAPE, or cyclically-adjusted price-earnings ratio, which was developed by Yale economist Robert Shiller, currently stands at 26.2 times average earnings, more than 60% above its more than century-old average of around 16. Anyone buying equities today is paying an extremely high, if not inflated, price.

It’s very interesting for me to be reading the Undoing Project right now, which specifically is discussing that people tend to think events were more predictable than they were after they happen.  This is also discussed in Black Swan.

It’s like we’re in 2005 wondering what the flavor of the next crash will be.

In other news:


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